Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: Best bets for this Monday night NFL wild card playoff matchup

Let’s start with the most obvious stat as the No. 5-seeded Dallas Cowboys travel to face the No. 4-seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs on Monday night: Tom Brady has never lost to the Cowboys in his career.

That’s right, the no-doubt, first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback is 7-0 against Dallas, including 2-0 with the Bucs.

Tampa opened the 2022 season with a Week 1 win over Dallas, 19-3, on Sept. 11, holding the Cowboys to 244 yards of total offense and quarterback Dak Prescott to just 134 passing yards and an interception before he injured his thumb and had to miss five weeks.

Since that game, both teams have gone in different directions.

The Bucs (8-9) lost five out of their next seven games, while the Cowboys (12-5) won 10 of their next 12, aided by the stellar play of backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

But with Dallas playing in the ultra-competitive NFC East, which qualified three teams for the playoffs, the Cowboys earned a Wild Card berth into the postseason.

Meanwhile, Tampa struggled, but was fortunate to play in the hapless NFC South where the Bucs were able to win the division and make the playoffs as the fourth-seed, and earn the honor of being the only team in the postseason with a losing record.

But now every team is 0-0 as the win-or-go-home playoffs begin for these two teams at 8:15 p.m. Monday night from Raymond James Stadium. The Cowboys are currently 2.5-point favorites.

Dallas hasn’t fared well in the playoffs in recent memory, winning only three games since 1996. The Bucs are two years removed from their second Super Bowl title and are making their third consecutive postseason appearance.

FrontPageBets takes a look at three best bets in this NFC Wild Card playoff matchup from Tampa.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change)

Buccaneers money line (+120)

Yes, Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL this season against the spread at 4-12-1. As underdogs, the Bucs are 0-3.

Dallas is 10-7 and 7-5 as a favorite ATS.

But, again, Brady has never lost to the Cowboys.

And this is the playoffs where Brady is, well, him. The quarterback holds a 35-12 postseason record, which is the best, ever. He also has 10 Super Bowl appearances and seven rings.

And these are the Cowboys in the playoffs, where you can set your watch to the eventual letdown.

Oh, and one more thing: as an underdog in the playoffs, Brady is 7-3.

Buccaneers QB Tom Brady over 42.5 pass attempts (-115)

Brady led the NFL in pass attempts during the regular season with 733, which was 34 more than the next-closest quarterback, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Brady also is third in the league in passing yards with 4,694 and tied for eighth with 25 touchdown passes.

He averaged 43.1 attempts during the regular season, but if you take out the final game against the Atlanta Falcons, where Brady played less than a half, he’s actually averaging 44.8 attempts.

He’s thrown more than 42 passes in 11 games, and five times he’s gone over 50, including 58 in a 16-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9.

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard over 3.5 receptions (+135)

Running back Tony Pollard is one half of a dynamic duo for the Cowboys, teaming up with Ezekiel Elliott keep defenses off-balance.

Pollard leads the team in rushing with 1,007 yards on 193 carries, averaging 5.2 yards per tote. He’s also scored nine touchdowns. Elliott leads the team with 12 rushing touchdowns.

Pollard is also dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield. He’s tied for fourth on the team in receptions with 39 for 371 yards and three scores, including a 68-yarder.

Pollard is averaging 2.4 catches per game, but in three of his last four games, he’s snagged 14 passes and has been targeted 18 times.

Against Tampa’s aggressive defense, look for the Cowboys to get Pollard the ball in different ways.

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