Bengals vs. Chiefs: Best bets for the AFC Championship Game

For the second consecutive year, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will face each other in the AFC Championship Game.

And while it’s not the matchup most expected – or wanted – in the AFC title game (as the Hollywood script called for Bills vs. Chiefs), Round 2 of Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes isn’t the worst consolation prize.

Matter of fact, this Bengals-Chiefs matchup has plenty of drama and story lines. None bigger than Mahomes and his ankle.

After suffering a high-ankle sprain in Kansas City’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Saturday, Mahomes is “going to play,” according to head coach Andy Reid.

The Kansas City quarterback was hurt in the first quarter of the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against Jaguars. Mahomes sat out the second quarter and but returned to finish the game, which the Chiefs won, 27-20.

How healthy will Mahomes, who was limping badly in Saturday’s game, be against the Bengals?

That’s the million-dollar question.

Mahomes makes his living by his mobility – not necessarily running for massive yardage, but being nimble, mobile and savvy enough to move inside and out of the pocket to create space, time and opportunities for broken plays to turn into big gains.

A high-ankle sprain can limit that, as we saw against the Jaguars.

Still, a less-than 100% Patrick Mahomes, who led the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes and quarterback rating this season, is better than most any other quarterback in the league at full strength.

Speaking of being at full strength, Burrow is there and then some.

Joe Cool gets better as the stakes get higher. In six career playoff games, Burrow is 5-1, losing only last year in Super Bowl LVI. He’s thrown for 1,556 yards and eight touchdowns against just two interceptions in the postseason, where he’s also completing 68.1% of his passes and has a 98.4 quarterback efficiency rating.

The difference for Burrow this year is that he’s not being sacked as much. During the playoffs last season, he was sacked 19 times. He’s only been brought down five times through two postseason games this year, and that’s with a makeshift offensive line.

A big reason for their success in last week’s win over the Buffalo Bills was also the running game. Cincinnati rushed for 172 yards on 34 attempts. Burrow threw for 240 yards on 36 attempts. So balance paid off.

And the Bengals defense stepped up, never allowing Buffalo’s potent offense to get loose, giving up 325 yards of total offense and just 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense also was able to get off the field, as the Bills were just 4-for-12 on third down.

Can that Bengals defense do it again – just like they have the past three games, including last year’s championship matchup?

We’ll find out soon enough, as FrontPageBets takes a look at three best bets for Sunday’s AFC title game.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings and subject to change)

Bengals money line (-105)

Sunday night, the line for the AFC Championship game opened with the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites. By Tuesday morning, it switched to the Bengals as 2-point – and at some sportsbooks, 3-point – favorites.

Wednesday, it settled to a 1-point spread in favor of Cincinnati. Then on Thursday it reversed back to Kansas City's favor by a point.

Cincinnati has beaten Kansas City three consecutive times, including in Week 13, 27-24. The Bengals were 2.5-point underdogs in that game at home.

The Bengals, including playoffs, are 13-5 against the spread this year and 8-2 on the road. As road favorites, they’re 5-2 ATS. As underdogs, the Bengals are 3-0.

The Chiefs are 6-11-1 against the spread and just 2-6-1 at home.

Kansas City has been an underdog only once this season and that was Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 2-point dogs. The Chiefs won 41-31.

Over 47 total team points (-110)

The average total score of the last three games between the Bengals and Chiefs is 55.7 points.

No game has been below 51 total points, including two with a 27-24 final score – which were the last two times they met, including last year’s AFC title game that went into overtime.

Both teams were in the top eight in scoring during the regular season with Kansas City leading the NFL with 29.2 points per game. Cincinnati averaged 26.1.

In Burrow’s postseason career, the Bengals are averaging 23.8 points per game. In Mahomes’ playoff career, the Chiefs are averaging 31.1 points.

Bengals PK Evan McPherson over 1.5 made field goals (-115)

In his two season in the NFL, Cincinnati place-kicker Evan McPherson has never missed a postseason kick. The right-footer out of Florida is 17-for-17 in six playoff games, including 3-for-3 from 50 yards or longer.

McPherson made all 14 of his field goals during the Bengals’ playoff run to the Super Bowl, including a 31-yard field goal in overtime to beat the Chiefs in the AFC title game.

If this game comes down to a kick to win, McPherson won’t flinch.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect how Kansas City moved to a 1-point favorite Thursday mid-morning.

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