In this week's FPBcast, Gerry Ahern and Mike Szvetitz talk Week 0 college football games and the end of NFL preseason.
With five weeks to go in the Major League Baseball regular season, the contenders have more or less separated themselves from the pretenders.
But expectations certainly can change at a moment’s notice. Just ask the New York Yankees, who entered the All-Star break at 64-28 but now aren’t even the favorite in Vegas to win the American League, let alone the World Series.
FrontPageBets tackles the best bets and most intriguing longshots for the AL pennant, the NL pennant and the World Series.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings).
American League
The Yankees’ stumbles have opened the door for the Houston Astros (+165), who are now the betting favorite to represent the AL in the World Series. They’ve been consistent winners after an 11-11 start to the season, they’ve won on the biggest stages before and they’re a pretty complete team. The Astros rank top-three in the AL in runs, slugging percentage and OPS, and nobody in the league can touch their 3.07 team ERA.
All that said, it might be the right time to get the Yankees (+190) at a good number. Their offense had disappeared and they’re just 12-20 since the All-Star break, but they’ve now won three in a row and deadline acquisition Andrew Benintendi has started raking clutch hits. Both slugger Giancarlo Stanton and starting pitcher Luis Severino will be back before the postseason, reinforcing a still-dangerous New York lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays (+600) are third on the board, and their star-powered offense does make them an intriguing pick to watch. But more surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Rays (+1500) are fifth behind both Toronto and the Seattle Mariners (+1200) despite the three clubs having nearly identical records. The Rays entered Wednesday on a 9-2 run, their pitching staff remains one of baseball’s best and -- most importantly -- Kevin Cash has guided this franchise to a pennant very recently and could do it again.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel top offensive odds; Steelers' T.J. Watt and Browns' Myles Garrett lead defenders.
National League
Look who it is, running away with the National League. The Los Angeles Dodgers (+170) are healthy favorites ahead of the New York Mets (+250), and deservedly so, thanks to owning far and away the best record in baseball. It doesn’t take a stretch of the imagination to picture the Dodgers reaching the World Series after making three of the last five, and who’s going to match the red-hot starting trio of Tyler Anderson, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin?
If there’s a good answer to that question, it might be Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. The Mets haven’t been this strong in years and bettors could be tempted to back one of the feel-good stories of the season. The Mets split a four-game series with the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in June; these odds might change after the clubs meet again in Queens Aug. 30-Sept. 1.
The Atlanta Braves (+425) and San Diego Padres (+950) are third and fourth on the board and each have an argument to make -- for the former, World Series pedigree, and for the latter, a hyper-talented core made even better with Juan Soto. We’re surprised the St. Louis Cardinals (+1100) don’t have slightly shorter odds. At 18-4 in their last 22, they’re the hottest team in baseball, and as Albert Pujols continues to chase down 700 career homers during his last hurrah, they might have a bit of magic working on their side. Read more about the Cardinals from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
World Series
The Dodgers are again the favorites here at +350, followed by the Astros at +425, the Yankees at +450 and the Mets at +550. Los Angeles is clearly the safest choice of that group, while either AL team could catch fire at a moment’s notice.
But give a long look to the Braves, who own the fifth-shortest odds at +950. The value could be a little better, but nobody is likely sleeping on the defending champions. They just had a 5-2 week against the Mets and Astros. Atlanta’s 190 home runs are coming from all over the lineup, from last year’s stalwarts to rookies Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom. Just like last year, they’re primed to give the Dodgers -- and the rest of baseball -- a good fight.
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