A record 32 games have been decided on the final play this season, results swinging like Tarzan on a vine, the attempted predicting of games even more exasperating than usual.
The COVID-19 spike (110 players leaguewide added to the list just this week) hasn’t made things any easier. But we’ve kept our beak above water with solid numbers both outright and against the point spread entering the final week of the regular season. We went a solid 12-4 overall (again) in Week 17, and an even 8-8 against the spread. Finished strong with Steelers (+3) over Browns Monday night in our Upset of the Week. We’ve had a great year on featured upset picks: 11-6 outright and 12-4-1 ATS. Also nailed covers by ‘dog Ravens and Bengals last week. Time for a big finish and a clean dismount into the postseason!
A little scheduling massage has put the perfect bow on the NFL regular season: The only Week 18 game that is winner-take-all for the very last of 14 playoff spots. Win = In. Lose = Begin your offseason. There is one possible exception to that, and it is why a conspiracy theory surrounds this game. See, if Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and Jacksonville upsets Indy earlier Sunday — then the Chargers and Raiders both would make the playoffs if their game ended in a tie. Two teams in cahoots for an intentional tie. Imagine! Las Vegas is home and hotter, off three straight wins, and could catch a break if TE Darren Waller plays for first time since Thanksgiving, as they hope. But L.A. has won past two meetings including 28-14 in Week 4. Vegas hasn’t been great at home (4-4), and I’m riding with Justin Herbert to outpitch Derek Carr for the final playoff ticket.
