Pandemic Lessons: When do we know it's OK to listen to the science?

kAmp D:?8=6 8C62E 82>6 5@6D?’E :?DE2?E=J H:? 2 9:89 D49@@= 2E9=6E6 2 s:G:D:@? x D49@=2CD9:A]k^Am

kAm~?6 – @C 6G6? EH@ @C E9C66 – 92C5\5C:G:?8 H@C<@FED H@?’E D4F=AE J@F :?E@ 8C62E D92A6]k^Am

kAmp?5 2 76H DEF5:6D DFAA@CE:?8 2 DA64:7:4 2AAC@249 E@ EC62E:?8 – @C 2G@:5:?8 – r@G:5\`h 5@?’E :>>65:2E6=J >2<6 E92E A2CE:4F=2C >6E9@5 E96 D>2CE E9:?8 E@ 5@]k^Am

kAm}@[ E92E 7:CDE 52E6 =625D E@ 2 D64@?5[ 2?5 9@A67F==J 2 E9:C5[ H:E9 =@ED @7 :>A@CE2?E 4@?G6CD2E:@? :? 36EH66?] %92E 7:CDE 8C62E 82>6 >2J 42AEFC6 E96 6J6 @7 C64CF:E6CD 2?5 D4@FED[ H9@ H:== H2?E E@ D66 2 A2EE6C? @7 2E9=6E:4 249:6G6>6?E 2?5 4=62C D:8?2=D @7 2 DEC@?8 H@C< 6E9:4 2?5 9:89 492C24E6C] p?5 2D 7@C E9@D6 H@C<@FEDn %9@D6 7:CDE EH@ @C E9C66 2C6 G:E2=[ ?@E 3642FD6 E96J 86E E96 ;@3 5@?6[ 3FE 3642FD6 E96J DE2CE 2 A2EE6C? E92E H:== =625 E@ 7:E?6DD – :7 J@F 42? DFDE2:? :E]k^Am

kAm%92E D2>6 4@?46AE 2AA=:6D E@ D4:6?46i %96C6 :D 52?86C – 3@E9 :?E6==64EF2==J 2?5 24EF2==J – :? 7@4FD:?8 @? 2 D>2== 8C@FA @7 DEF5:6D E92E 92G6 7:?5:?8D J@F =:<6[ 2?5 E96? 6>3C24:?8 E96> 2D C62=:EJ]k^Am

kAm“$4:6?46 :D ?@E 3F:=E @? 2 D:?8=6 DEF5J[” D2:5 $F>:E r92?52[ 2? :?764E:@FD 5:D62D6D 6IA6CE 2E $4C:AAD #6D62C49 2?5 2 (:==:2>DG:==6 ?2E:G6] “xE’D 3F:=E @? 2 3@5J @7 H@C< E92E :D 5@?6 3J >F=E:A=6[ :?56A6?56?E A6@A=6 2?5 =23D E92E 3F:=5 2 4@?D6?DFD 2C@F?5 @FC F?56CDE2?5:?8]”k^Am

kAmx? E9:D !2?56>:4 {6DD@?D[ H6 6IA=@C6 9@H E@ <?@H H96? :E’D E:>6 E@ =:DE6? E@ D4:6?46]k^Am

kAmk6>mkDEC@?8m{6E’D 368:? H:E9 D@>6 4@?E6IE] (9J 2C6 H6 HC:E:?8 23@FE E9:Dnk^DEC@?8mk^6>mk^Am

kAm%H@ C62D@?D — E96 7:CDE :D C624E:G6j E96 @E96C[ AC@24E:G6ik^Am

kAmkDEC@?8m• r@?7:C>2E:@? 3:2D]k^DEC@?8m !6@A=6 92G6 2? :?DE:?4E:G6 E6?56?4J E@ 8C2G:E2E6 E@ :?7@C>2E:@? E96J H2?E E@ 962C] %92EVD 2 ?2EFC2= C624E:@?] x7 J@F’C6 96D:E2?E @C C6D:DE2?E E@ 86EE:?8 G244:?2E65[ 2?J DEF5J E92E E@FED E96 36?67:ED @7 A@DE\:?764E:@? AC@E64E:@? – @C H92E’D @7E6? 42==65 “?2EFC2= :>>F?:EJ” – H:== D@F?5 8@@5]k^Am

kAmqFE k6>m:Dk^6>m :E 8@@5nk^Am

kAm|2J36]k^Am

kAm|2J36 A2CED @7 E92E DEF5J 2C6 8@@5] |2J36 2== @7 :E] |2J36 ?@?6]k^Am

kAm“%96C6 >2J 36 :DDF6D[ 2?5 F?=6DD J@F 92G6 E96 D<:== D6E E@ 36 23=6 E@ 4C:E:42==J C6G:6H E92E A2A6C[ 2?5 J@F 92G6 6IA6CE:D6 :? E92E 2C62[ J@F >2J ?@E C62=:K6 E92E E96 4@?4=FD:@?D 2C6 DFAA@CE65 2?5 G2=:5 @C ?@E[” D2:5 sC] %9@>2D #FDD@[ 49:67 @7 :?764E:@FD 5:D62D6D 2E E96 &?:G6CD:EJ 2E qF772=@’D y24@3D $49@@= @7 |65:4:?6 2?5 q:@>65:42= $4:6?46D]k^Am

kAmx>28:?6 H2=<:?8 E9C@F89 2 56?D6=J A24<65 9@FD:?8 56G6=@A>6?E E92E 92D 366? C2G2865 3J 2 DE@C>[ 2?5 J@FC ;@3 :D E@ :56?E:7J H9:49 9@>6D 2C6 DECF4EFC2==J D@F?5[ H9:49 @?6D H:== ?665 E@ 36 56>@=:D965[ 2?5 H9:49 @?6D 42? 36 D2G65] *@F’== ?665 E@ 6IA=2:? J@FC 564:D:@?D[ :? 56E2:=[ @? 6249]k^Am

kAmr@F=5 J@F 5@ :Enk^Am

kAmx7 J@F’C6 2? 2C49:E64E[ DECF4EFC2= 6?8:?66C[ 4@?DECF4E:@? AC@76DD:@?2= @C D@>6E9:?8 @7 E96 =:<6[ J@F AC@323=J 4@F=5] ~C 2E E96 G6CJ =62DE[ J@F’5 36 6BF:AA65 E@ 6IA=2:? H9J J@F 42?’E[ 3642FD6 J@F H@F=5 <?@H H92E :?7@C>2E:@? J@F’C6 =24<:?8 3J @?=J =@@<:?8 2E E96 9@>6D 7C@> E96 @FED:56]k^Am

kAmqFE :7 J@F’C6 2 HC:E6C[ >FD:4:2?[ =2HJ6C @C 496>:DE[ J@F AC@323=J 4@F=5?’E 5@ E9:D 2E 2== – D9@CE @7 D:>A=J E2<:?8 J@FC 36DE 8F6DD] *@F H@F=5?’E 6G6? <?@H H92E E@ =@@< 7@C[ 36J@?5 E96 @3G:@FD W=:<6 2 42G65\:? C@@7X]k^Am

kAmqFE @7 4@FCD6[ J@F’5 ?6G6C 36 2D<65 E@ 5@ E9:D ;@3[ 3642FD6 4@?DECF4E:@? :D 5@?6 3J AC@76DD:@?2=D]k^Am

kAm$@ :D D4:6?46]k^Am

kAmkDEC@?8m• &?56CDE2?5:?8 E96 A2E9 E@ 2 36EE6C A=246]k^DEC@?8m x? 2 C646?E :?E6CG:6H 7@C E9:D D6C:6D[ sC] $EF2CE #2J[ H9@ :D G:46 492:C @7 >65:4:?6 7@C 52E2 :?E68C:EJ 2?5 2?2=JE:4D 2E y@9?D w@A<:?D |65:4:?6[ 56D4C:365 H92E :E H:== E2<6 E@ AC@24E:G6=J >@G6 @FC D@4:6EJ E@ 2 962=E9:6C A@D:E:@? 2D H6 G:6 E@ 6I:E E96 A2?56>:4]k^Am

kAm“x7 EC2?D>:DD:@? C2E6D 2C6 =@H[ E96? H6 42? DE2CE E2<:?8 E96 >2D<D @77[” #2J D2:5] “xE’D ?@E =:<6 H6’C6 8@:?8 E@ D2J[ ‘(62C >2D<D 7@C6G6C]’ (6 ;FDE ?665 E@ 86E E@ E96 A@:?E H96C6 A6@A=6 2C6 ?@E 5J:?8 2E E96 C2E6D E96J 2C6 ?@H[ 2?5 E92E C2E6D @7 EC2?D>:DD:@? 2C6 =@H6C]k^Am

kAm“qFE C:89E ?@H[ H6’C6 =@@<:?8 2E 2 E@F89 H:?E6C :7 H6 5@?’E 86E 9:896C C2E6D @7 :>>F?:EJ] %96 36DE H2J E@ 86E E96C6[ D42=23=J 2?5 G6C:7:23=J[ :D H:E9 G244:?2E:@?]”k^Am

kAm#2J :D AC64:D6 :? 9:D H@C5 49@:46j :? @FC :?E6CG:6H[ 96 6G6? A@:?E65 @FE E92E E96 E6C> “?2EFC2= :>>F?:EJ” >2J >:D:?7@C> E96 AF3=:4[ D:?46 “E96 AC@46DD6D E92E 86?6C2E6 E96 :>>F?6 C6DA@?D6 H6’C6 D66<:?8” – H96E96C :?:E:2E65 3J :?764E:@? @C 2 G244:?6 – “2C6 ?2EFC2=]”k^Am

kAm“%96 ?@E:@? E92E ?2EFC2= :>>F?:EJ :D ;FIE2A@D65 282:?DE G244:?2E:@?\5C:G6? :>>F?:EJ >:89E >:D=625 A6@A=6[” #2J D2:5[ DF886DE:?8 H6 C676C E@ AC@E64E:@? E92E 4@>6D 7C@> 2 3@FE H:E9 r@G:5\`h 2D “A@DE\:?764E:@? :>>F?:EJ” @C “A@DE\r@G:5 :>>F?:EJ]”k^Am

kAmr=62C=J[ #2J – =:<6 G:CEF2==J 2== 5@4E@CD 2?5 D4:6?E:DED – 24<?@H=6586D E92E A@DE\r@G:5 :>>F?:EJ 6I:DED] qFE E92E’D ?@E H96C6 E9:D A@:?E 6?5D[ 6:E96C] q6:?8 “C62=” 5@6D?’E >2<6 A@DE\:?764E:@? :>>F?:EJ 4@?D:DE6?E[ C6=:23=6[ >62DFC23=6 @C =@?8\=2DE:?8] $4:6?E:DED 2C6 DE:== DEF5J:?8 E96 5FC23:=:EJ @7 :>>F?:EJ E92E 4@>6D 7C@> :?764E:@?[ 2?5 E96J =24< E96 E@@=D E@ H:56=J 2?5 256BF2E6=J >62DFC6 :E :? :?5:G:5F2=D]k^Am

kAm%92E’D H9J #2J FD65 2?@E96C <6J H@C5 :? 9:D BF@E6 23@G6i G6C:7:23=J] '244:?2E:@?\:?5F465 :>>F?:EJ :D >@C6 DEF5:65 2?5 >62DFC23=6[ 3@E9 :? E96 56G6=@A>6?E @7 E96 G244:?6D 2?5 E96 25>:?:DEC2E:@? @7 E96 5@D6D] q=@@>36C8 C6A@CED E92E ?62C=J e]f 3:==:@? D9@ED 92G6 366? 8:G6? :? `gc 4@F?EC:6D[ 2?5 :? E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D – H96C6 !7:K6C[ |@56C?2 2?5 y@9?D@? U2>Aj y@9?D@? G244:?6D 2C6 2AAC@G65 – c_f >:==:@? 5@D6D 92G6 366? 25>:?:DE6C65] %96 u@@5 2?5 sCF8 p5>:?:DEC2E:@? :D 6IA64E65 E@ D@@? 2FE9@C:K6 !7:K6C 5@D6D 7@C 49:=5C6? 286D d\``[ 2 564:D:@? E92E H:== 36 32D65 @? 2? @G6CH96=>:?8 G@=F>6 @7 6G:56?46 E92E G244:?2E:@? :D D276]k^Am

kAm“(6’G6 2=C625J G244:?2E65 @G6C `__ >:==:@? 25F=ED H:E9 E9:D G244:?6[” D2:5 sC] $92C@? }249>2?[ 5:C64E@C @7 E96 s:G:D:@? @7 !65:2EC:4 x?764E:@FD s:D62D6D 2E $E@?J qC@@< r9:=5C6?’D w@DA:E2=] “(6’C6 72:C=J 4@>7@CE23=6 H:E9 E96 25G6CD6 6G6?E C2E6 2?5 AC@7:=6[ 2?5 :E H:== 36 ?@ 5:776C6?E :? 49:=5C6?]”k^Am

kAmk6>mxE H:== 36 ?@ 5:776C6?E :? 49:=5C6?]k^6>mk^Am

kAm}249>2? D2JD E9@D6 H@C5D 32D65 @? 6G:56?46[ 2?5 E96 6IA6CE:D6 E@ F?56CDE2?5 :E]k^Am

kAm}@H252JD[ H6 42? 2== 2446DD :?7@C>2E:@? @? r@G:5\`h[ 7C@> G244:?2E:@? 52E2 E@ :>>F?:EJ C6D62C49 E@ DEF5:6D @7 6IA6C:>6?E2= EC62E>6?ED =:<6 :G6C>64E:?] v@@8=6 H:== 86E FD E96 52E2]k^Am

kAmqFE E92E 5@6D?’E >62? k6>mH6k^6>m F?56CDE2?5 :E]k^Am

kAmk6>mkDEC@?8m(9J E96 4@?7FD:@?nk^DEC@?8mk^6>mk^Am

kAm%96 G@=F>6 2?5 4@>A=6I:EJ @7 E96 C6D62C49 :D 52F?E:?8]k^Am

kAm“%96C6’D 2 =@E @7 52E2[ >@C6 52E2 @? @?6 E@A:4 E92? x’G6 6G6C D66? :? >J D4:6?E:7:4 42C66C[” D2:5 r92?52[ H9@ 62C?65 9:D 5@4E@C2E6 7C@> $E2?7@C5 :? a__`] “tG6CJ@?6 92D A:G@E65] !6@A=6 H9@ FD65 E@ H@C< @? 42?46C @C 962CE 5:D62D6 92G6 A:G@E65 E@ r@G:5] %96C6’D 2 =@E @7 52E2 @FE E96C6[ 3FE 2 =@E @7 E96 52E2 :D 4@?7=:4E:?8]”k^Am

kAm%9:D :D ?@C>2=] |F49 =:<6 =2HJ6CD >2J E2<6 5:DE:?4E=J 5:776C6?E 2AAC@2496D E@ DEC2E68:K:?8 2 42D6[ @C 2C49:E64ED H:== 4C62E6 F?:BF6 56D:8?D 7@C 2 AC@A@D2= H:E9 6I24E:?8 4@DE 2?5 D:K6 DA64:7:42E:@?D[ E96 H2J @?6 D4:6?E:DE 56D:8?D 2 DEF5J H:== 5:776C 7C@> E96 ?6IE] u@C 6I2>A=6[ 2 r=6G6=2?5 r=:?:4 DEF5J @7 A@DE\r@G:5 :>>F?:EJ 7@4FD65 @? 962=E9 42C6 H@C<6CD] %96 C6DF=ED DFAA@CE E96 DEC6?8E9 @7 E9:D ?2EFC2= 7@C> @7 AC@E64E:@?[ 3FE r=6G6=2?5 r=:?:4 C6D62C496CD 92G6 2=D@ A@:?E65 @FE E92E E96 A6@A=6 DEF5:65 H6C6 “J@F?86C 2?5 962=E9:6C E92? E96 86?6C2= A@AF=2E:@?]” %96 C6D62C496CD 2=D@ 4@?E:?F65 E@ 25G@42E6 86EE:?8 G244:?2E65]k^Am

kAmp >F49\AF3=:4:K65 xDC26=: C6D62C49 A2A6C 2=D@ DFAA@CE65 A@DE\r@G:5 :>>F?:EJ[ H9:=6 2 H:56=J C6A@CE65 z6?EF4<J DEF5J 6>A92D:K65 E96 8C62E6C AC@E64E:@? 277@C565 3J G244:?2E:@?]k^Am

kAm$@CE:?8[ 5632E:?8 2?5 C64@?4:=:?8 E92E 4@?7=:4E:?8 52E2 :D E96 H@C< E92E D4:6?E:DED 5@] %9:D :D?’E ?6H[ 3FE ?@H :E’D 92AA6?:?8 :? E96 AF3=:4 6J6] $4:6?E:DED 92G6 =@?8 A@DE65 5C27E 4@A:6D @7 E96:C C6D62C49 – 42==65 “AC6AC:?ED” – @? AF3=:4=J 2G2:=23=6 H63D:E6D] %9:D 2==@HD E96:C 7:?5:?8D E@ 36 C6G:6H65 3J E96:C 76==@H C6D62C496CD[ H9@ H:== 8:G6 7665324< 2?5 >2J C6BF6DE 255:E:@?2= C6D62C49 @C 52E2]k^Am

kAm%9:D A66C\C6G:6H AC@46DD “:D E96 7@F?52E:@? E92E D4:6?46 DE2?5D @?[” r92?52 D2:5[ 2?5 :E’D 2 AC6C6BF:D:E6 7@C 86EE:?8 AF3=:D965 :? AC6DE:8:@FD ;@FC?2=D[ D@>6 @7 H9:49 C6;64E g_T E@ h_T @C >@C6 @7 E96 A2A6CD DF3>:EE65]k^Am

kAm“%92E’D 3642FD6 H92E E96 2FE9@CD 2C6 4=2:>:?8 ;FDE 5@6D?’E DE2?5 FA E@ D4CFE:?J H96? J@F 92G6 :?56A6?56?E A6@A=6 =@@<:?8 2E :E[” r92?52 D2:5] “%92E’D 6I24E=J E96 <:?5 @7 4964<D 2?5 32=2?46D DJDE6> E92E <66AD D4:6?46 C:8@C@FD 2?5 AC@5F4E:G6]”k^Am

kAmk6>mkDEC@?8m%9:D D@F?5D =:<6 2 8@@5 E9:?8] xD?VE :Enk^DEC@?8mk^6>mk^Am

kAm*6D] xE ;FDE 56>2?5D A6CDA64E:G6]k^Am

kAm“r@G:5 492?865 6G6CJE9:?8[ 3642FD6 ?@H E96C6’D 2 D6?D6 @7 FC86?4J[” #FDD@ D2:5[ ?@E:?8 E92E E96 D4:6?E:7:4 C6G:6H AC@46DD “42? E2<6 2 H9:=6[” 2?5 BF:4< D92C:?8 @7 :?7@C>2E:@? 5FC:?8 E96 A2?56>:4 2==@HD C6D62C496CD E@ D92C6 52E2 E@ 3@E9 BF6DE:@? 2?5 3F:=5 @? 6249 @E96C’D H@C<]k^Am

kAm“%96 AC@3=6> :D :7 J@F E96? E2<6 E96 4@?4=FD:@?D @7 2== @7 E9@D6 AC6AC:?E A2A6CD 2?5 2DDF>6 E96J’C6 4@CC64E[” 96 D2:5] Q%96J’C6 ?@E 2=H2JD 8@:?8 E@ 36 4@CC64E[ D@ E92E >2J =625 J@F 5@H? 2 A2E9 E92E :D ?@E G2=:5[ 2?5 :E’D ?@E D4:6?E:7:42==J ;FDE:7:65]”k^Am

kAm%9:D 92AA6?65 @G6C E96 DF>>6C H:E9 2 DEF5J 7C@> t8JAE =2F5:?8 E96 FD6 @7 :G6C>64E:?[ 2? 2?E:A2C2D:E:4 5CF8 2G2:=23=6 3J AC6D4C:AE:@? E@ 9F>2?D[ 2?5 FD65 2D 2 56H@C>:?8 >65:42E:@? 7@C 2?:>2=D] %96 t8JAE:2? C6D62C496CD 7@F?5 :E C65F465 r@G:5\`h 562E9D – 2 D66>:?8 C6G6=2E:@? E92E 82C?6C65 H@C=5H:56 2EE6?E:@?] qFE E96? E96 A2A6C H2D 7=28865 3J @E96C D4:6?E:DED 2D 92G:?8 D6C:@FD 7=2HD :? E96 C6D62C49 56D:8? 2?5 7@C 52E2 >2?:AF=2E:@? 2?5 A=28:2C:D>] %96 H63D:E6 E92E AF3=:D965 E96 A2A6C F=E:>2E6=J C6D4:?565 :E]k^Am

kAm%92E’D 2? 6I2>A=6 @7 E96 52?86C :? 6>3C24:?8 2 D:?8=6 DEF5J]k^Am

kAmk6>mkDEC@?8m(92E[ E96?[ 5@ D4:6?E:DED =@@< 7@Cnk^DEC@?8mk^6>mk^Am

kAm“(92E E96 3F=< @7 E96 =:E6C2EFC6 D9@HD[” D2:5 #FDD@[ @776C:?8 E9:D 6I2>A=6i *@F 92G6 `_ A2A6CD E92E DEF5J 9@H E@ >2?286 2 DA64:7:4 >65:42= 4@?5:E:@?] t:89E DFAA@CE @?6 >6E9@5] ~?6 DF886DED E92E 2AAC@249 :D :?4@CC64E] p?@E96C :D ?6FEC2=]k^Am

kAmx7 2== @7 E96 A2A6CD 2C6 “@7 6BF2= BF2=:EJ” 2?5 DEF5J “2 4@>A2C23=6 A2E:6?E A@AF=2E:@?[” #FDD@ D2:5[ “E96 3F=< @7 E96 =:E6C2EFC6 DFAA@CED E92E J@F D9@F=5 8@ 29625 H:E9 E92E EC62E>6?E]”k^Am

kAm{:<6H:D6[ 96 25565[ :7 J@F 92G6 D6G6C2= DEF5:6D @? 2 E@A:4[ 3FE @?=J EH@ 2C6 9:89\BF2=:EJ[ 4@?EC@==65 2?5 H6==\56D:8?65 DEF5:6D[ E96J H:== @FEH6:89 D6G6C2= >@C6 “D>2==[ A@@C BF2=:EJ EC:2=D 2D H6==]”k^Am

kAm$@F?5 4@>A=:42E65n xE :D] %92E’D H9J E96 36DE >@G6 7@C >@DE @7 FD :D?’E E@ A=2J D4:6?E:DE] #2E96C[ :E’D E@ =:DE6? E@ E96> – 2 =@E @7 E96>]k^Am